Myles Lewis-Skelly will start at left back for Arsenal just like he’s done most weeks since Christmas. Since he broke into the Gunnars first team, he’s become one of the most fouled players in the league. He’s been fouls the 2+ fouls needed for the main bet in 10/11 most recent starts for club and country, averaging 3 fouls won per game.
Arsenal have to attack, they have to push forward so we will almost certainly see Lewis-Skelly overlapping Martinelli, helping out in attack. This should hopefully help the bet, giving us no reason to doubt the stats at all.
João Neves is the terrier in the PSG midfield. He’s only 5’9 and about 9 stone in wet denims but his energy is relentless and his dogged work allows Ruiz and Vitinha to dictate play and pull the strings. It’s hardly surprising then to learn that his foul stats are high. In his most recent 8 games he’s had 1+ fouls in 7/8 and has averaged 1.8 per game. It’s worth pointing out that he made 4 fouls in the first leg in North London and also gave away 4 fouls when Villa recently came to Paris for the 1/4 final. With PSG defending a perilous 1-0 lead and Arsenal forced in to throwing men forward, it’s going to be down to the likes of Neves to stop them - by any means necessary.
I’ve already mentioned Lewis-Skelly has been fouled 2 or more times in 10/11 recent games and that Neves has 4 fouls in each of his 2 recent Champions League games so it wouldn’t be a surprise if they won 2+ fouls and gave away 2+ fouls respectively. Then if we add Desire Doue to be felled 2 or more times we get a really juicy treble priced at a shade under 5/1; that’s well worth a punt with low stakes. PSG will no way sit back on their lead and Doue will be one of their main attacking outlets. He’s been fouled 1+ times in 10/10 recent league and champions league games and the 2+ needed in 5/10. Many of those games were one sided league games where he was subbed around 60 minutes to save his legs. This is going to be a super competitive game - like the first leg where he was fouled 3 times. Same again, please!
