With a CL spot firmly in their sights, Newcastle are hitting top form at the perfect time. They are absolutely flying and will surely spend a lot of this game on the attack. Yoro will almost certainly start on the left side of a back 3 where he’ll be up against the likes of Isak, Murphy, Guimaraes and Trippier. All of whom are great for drawing fouls.
Enough about the context, let’s look at the hard facts. Yoro has made 1 or more fouls in 12/13 starts (using super sub data) and in each of his last 8 straight games. To be getting a bet with a prior success rate of 92.3% at a shade under evens is tremendous value and has to be taken on every time.
Newcastle v Man United matches have serious history and I sense there’s going to be plenty of dark arts and tactical fouls in this one. So I’ve put together a really tasty long shot backed up by some favourable stats.
I’ve mentioned that Yoro has 1+ fouls in 12/13 starts. Mazraoui has the 2+ fouls needed in 6/9 recent away matches with his 3 failures coming against Everton, Fulham and Leicester, all teams who force low foul counts against opposing defenders. Newcastle are the opposite!
Fabian Schar has 1+ fouls in 10/12 (83.3%) recent games and in each of his 9 games against Man United (3,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1).
Finally, Joelinton is going to be up against Ugarte, Dalot Bruno and Mazraoui. It’ll take a premier league miracle for one of them not to foul him! He’s also been fouled 1+ times in 9/11 recent domestic league matches.
Yoro fouls: 1,1,1,1,1,1,1,2,0,2,2,1,2
Mazraoui fouls away: 2,2,0,3,1,3,3,0,3
Schar fouls: 0,2,1,1,1,1,2,0,2,3,1,1
Joelinton fouls won: 0,2,0,5,4,2,2,2,2,3,2