The last league meeting between the sides wasn’t shy of bite with 29 fouls and 5 cards combined. Given the stakes here we can expect more of the same.
The Palace team almost picks itself with the main debate coming in the centre of the park. With 2 of Wharton, Hughes and Lerma to be picked. The Villa 11 raises more questions. Emery is happy to shift his midfield around and it’s a toss up between Marcus Rashford and Ollie Watkins for the spot up front.
Firstly we are focusing on the likely battle between Eze and Matty Cash on the Palace left flank. Eze is Palace’s talisman and no stranger to drawing fouls. Across the 24/25 season he’s drawn 1.85 fouls per 90 minutes. He’ll spend a lot of his time on the left wing where Cash should be waiting to strike. The Polish international has a nice foul record, 1.43 per 90 across the season. Given the close proximity of the pair, there’s a great chance Cash fouls Eze landing both selections.
Morgan Rogers makes up the next part of the builder. It’s been a real breakthrough season for the Villa man, he’s drawn 1.44 fouls per 90 and won a foul in 27 of his last 31 starts. Ball carrying is a massive strength of his and a nasty challenge or a petulant tug is often needed to stop him.
Bet 2 - Cash 2+ fouls, Eze 2+ fouls won, Rogers 2+ fouls won.
Given the reasoning above, the long shot is simply the first bet doubled. There is potential for higher lines here and the price of 7.67’s with Paddy Power has drawn me in. Cash had made 2+ fouls in 9 of his last 14 when playing 60+. With Eze drawing 1.85 per 90, it gives Cash a very realistic chance of hitting 2 again.
Rogers himself has won 2+ in 9 of his last 16 starts. More than good enough to be included in our long odds bet.