In the last 4 meetings between Chelsea and Spurs there’s been 119 fouls (29.8 average), 19 yellow cards (4.8 average) and 4 red cards (0.5 average) so it seems a no brainer to be betting on the dark arts, especially with both teams filled with plenty of pace but also unregistered chiropractors!
Recent meetings:
• 28 fouls, 5 yellows
• 28 fouls, 1 yellow
• 33 fouls, 8 yellows, 2 reds
• 30 fouls, 5 yellows
Key matchups:
That pace I alluded to earlier - spurs will almost certainly start with Destiny Udogie and Djed Spence as attacking wingbacks. They will undoubtedly cause issues for Cucurella and Fofana who both love a foul. Then there’s also the midfield duo of Enzo and Caucedo; it doesn’t get more combative than that.
However, Chelsea’s understated hero this season has been Enzo Fernandez. He’s the link man, the man who breaks up play. He’s everywhere and this is showing in his fouls / fouls won stats. But I’ll come to that later. His midfield battle against Sarr, Bissouma and co. will be like kicking out time at the dog and duck.
In his last 12 starts, Enzo has been fouled an average of 2.3 times per game, drawing the 2+ fouls needed for this bet in 10/12 matches (including the super sub option in to the data). A shade below EVS for something with a success rate of 83.3% offers fantastic value, especially with the opponents he’ll be facing.
If we reach the recent foul average of 29.8 between these teams then this has a great chance. As we know, Enzo has drawn 2+ fouls in 10/12 (83.3%) games, whereas Spence has been fouled 2+ times in 11/13 (85%) of his recent games. Add to that the fact that Udogie has drawn 1+ foul in 15/16 (94%) starts and Spence has committed 1+ fouls in 11/13 (85%) then this is definitely worth taking on at a tasty 7.91 with the extra security of Super Sub.
• Enzo fouls won: 4,1,2,1,2,3,3,2,2,2,4,2
• Spence fouls won: 5,3,1,5,2,2,3,2,0,2,2,3,3
• Udogie fouls won: 2,2,3,1,3,1,2,2,0,3,1,5,2,2,2,3
• Spence fouls: 2,1,2,2,0,0,1,3,1,1,2,1,1
Amazing stats for this one. Good luck of you tail.