The Magpies sit proudly in the Champions League spots and they’ll certainly not die wondering if they qualify or not. Their last 6 league matches have overseen 24 goals (3-0, 4-1, 5-0, 4-1, 3-0, 2-1) and 118 fouls (18,21,23,16,16,24). That’s an average of 4 goals and 19.7 fouls per game.
Brighton really have to win today if they want to potentially steal in to 7th place. Like Newcastle, they’ve left absolutely nothing in the changing rooms in their bid for qualification. In their last 6 games there’s been 25 goals (3-2, 4-2, 2-2, 2-1, 3-0, 2-2) and an incredible 126 fouls (16,18,20,25,27,20). That’s an average of 4.2 goals and 21 fouls per game. There’s every chance that because of what’s at stake - and because of the way these teams play - we’ll see these aforementioned averages met and that’ll give us a great chance.
Jan Paul van Hecke will almost certainly be back after sitting out last week due to concussion protocols. His foul involvements have been incredibly high recently but the bookies don’t seem to have caught on. In his last 8 starts he’s won the 1+ fouls needed for the base bet in 8/8 (100%) games; he’s also won the 2+ fouls needed for the long shot in 5/8 (63%) games. He’s going to be up against the likes of Isak, Murphy, Barnes, Gordon, Tonali etc in a huge, must-win game for both sides vying for European spots.
