Often, the first leg of a Champions League semi finals can be a tentative affair with both sides working each-other out like a fascinating chess battle. It seems highly certain that Inter will sit back deeper and look to keep things tight; this ‘defence Vs attack’ tactic often results in low foul numbers because the game is without too much end to end flow. Sure, Inter will almost certainly delve in to the dark arts but the Barcelona ‘free-kicks won’ line looks very high to me, especially when looking at the stats.
Barcelona have been awarded the 17 or more free kicks that would lose this bet in just 1/10 recent games.
Barcelona FK’s won: 15,10,12,16,16,16,15,15,13,17
As well as this, Inter are known for their defensive shape and low foul count. They’ve conceded 17 or more fouls in just 2/13 recent games, so as long as they don’t lose their heads like they did in Bologna a few weeks ago, I think this section of the bet has a great chance.
Inter FK’s conceded: 13,10,22,10,6,10,10,9,10,17,9,9,9
One man who might be in for an extremely tough assignment is striker, Lautaro Martinez. With Inter presumably packing the midfield and sitting fairly deep, it’ll be up to Martinez to do most of the pressing from the front, something he’s more than capable and willing to do with his incredible speed and agility. What’s more, Martinez has had 1+ fouls in 9/10 recent games averaging 1.9 fouls per game in the process.
Martinez fouls: 4,1,1,1,2,2,1,2,3,0,2
Considering Martinez has also had 2+ fouls in 6/11 recent games as well as Inter conceding 15 or more fouls in just 2/13 matches, it’s well worth a low stake pop at this juicy 5/1 shot especially with that amount of pressing Martinez is likely to have to do.