Arsenal have completely dominated this fixture, winning each of the last 6 meetings against Palace at an aggregate of 20-4. I know this bet has nothing to do with goals or whoever wins but my point is - one sided games almost always see a low foul count for the team who’s on top. To prove my point - this very bet would have won in each of those 6 recent head to head matches with Arsenal conceding a measly: 8,7,7,10,8,11 Free Kicks.
Back to tonight’s match - Arsenal have 2nd place firmly in their sights but in the fouls league they’re way down in 15th. At home that foul count drops even further. In fact, Arsenal have conceded 13 or more free kicks in just 3/22 home games, thus giving this bet a prior success rate of 86.3% at the Emirates.
Arsenal FK’s conceded home: 10,8,7,12,18,9,10,19,11,8,8,10,11,12,12,10,16,7,11,10,11,6
Leaving no stone unturned, I’ve looked at Palace’s recent away record and they’ve won 13 or more free kicks in 4/15 recent matches which is a slightly lower win rate of 73.3% but still decent.
Palace FK’s won away: 10,11,16,12,10,12,13,8,14,12,15,11,11,8,11,
However, I feel the Palace data is slightly misleading because many of Palace’s away matches were close encounters, against teams who are evenly matched to them, which obviously brings about more fouls. I fully expect Arsenal to dominate possession at around the 65% region and to most probably dominate the scoreboard too. If they do, then this bet has a superb chance of winning like it’s done in each of their last 6 meetings between the sides.
Finally, we look at the long shot. Adam Wharton, he’s had the 1+ fouls needed in 15/16 starts and each of his last 10. Arsenal have conceded 3 or more cards in just 3/24 home matches and there’s been a red card in just 3/24 of those aforementioned home games.
Wharton fouls: 1,2,1,1,4,1,1,1,1,2,2,0,1,1,1,1
Arsenal cards home: 1,1,1,3,3,2,2,2,2,3,2,1,1,1,0,2,1,2,2,2,0,1,2,1